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With the heavy demand on fuel resources that require, many carriers may not allocate a sufficient amount of time to let their new gain enough demand to a point where they can be profitable, because the initial losses will simply too severe due to high fuel costs.
Any route takes time to gain demand and become profitable, but in this environment, airlines may be more risk adverse. This may have good short term implications for airline balance sheets, but if the new markets airlines tout really do warrant service to the us, then other carriers, foreign carriers, may make the leap to start service and get a valuable head start on us carriers in terms of gaining market share.
The second drawback is this expansion of service by foreign carriers in us markets. In many cases, these foreign carriers have higher product and service standards than their us counterparts, especially in first and business class, allowing them to gain additional high yield passengers, even if they start service on a route after a us carrier starts service.
Moreover, foreign carriers often offer nonstop service where us carriers offer hub and spoke connections though this works both ways, depending on the routes, since passengers can connect in the us on american carriers or abroad on foreign carriers. Us carriers have tried in recent years to upgrade their cabins to compete with foreign carriers, but sadly, they have fallen behind in many areas, and this could impact their ability to make international routes as profitable as they desire.
Legacy carriers have done nearly all they can to reduce costs. There are no major cost cuts they can make, and any further cost cuts will either shrink the size of the carriers, or trim operations that should not be trimmed for the long term benefit of the company.
What will need to happen now is that these carriers will need to look into the future and see how they can best position themselves towards these new realities. This means that carriers need to rethink their expansion as well as their new aircraft purchases and timing.
Expect increased pressure from airlines around the world on aircraft manufacturers to create an aircraft that can deliver dramatic fuel efficiency gains. Moreover, airlines may exert continuing pressure to offer better solutions to energy policy. This is not a problem we can drill our way out of, but rather one where established alternative energy solutions need to be implemented such as electric vehicles so oil can be used for industries where serious alternatives do not yet exist such as aviation .
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